The developers of two new 1,500-seat venues gush about the finest sound equipment, restaurants and VIP lounges. Brad Wells, a managing partner at The National Theater (700 block of Broad Street) and Jeff Sadler, his counterpart at Toad’s Place Richmond (Lady Bird Hat building on the Canal), each say their project will bring national acts to Richmond on a weekly basis.

But mention the competition of two similarly-sized, similarly-timed projects, and both men clam up. In a city known for fickle music fans, and where several venues have failed, nobody, it seems, wants to talk about how long the music will last. Or who might be without a seat if the music stops playing.

Wells and Sadler each say they’re not playing close attention to what the other is doing. Perhaps it raises uncomfortable questions, like will one flop after five years and leave its investors millions of dollars in the hole? Or maybe the pair, who each have decades of experience in the business, are just being diplomatic. (Or possibly there’s no PR value in talking about it with a reporter.)

“It’s a tough freakin’ business,” said Steve Payne, a life-long Richmonder who in the early 80s helped to start the 800-seat Flood Zone, one of the first businesses in Shockoe Bottom. That venue changed hands and eventually closed to make way for Have a Nice Day Cafe in the late 90s. “You can have a home run and sell out one show, and then do a show and nobody comes. Now you have to do ten home runs to get back to zero.”

Payne said times have changed, but he wonders how much. Toad’s and The National both plan on booking national acts. Both plan an average ticket price less than $25. Both are smoke free. Both include restaurants that will operate when the music halls aren’t open. Both are affiliated with long-standing East Coast venues. Both involve millions of dollars in private financing. Both are historical renovations.

After several delays, Toad’s Place will be the first to open, with an event scheduled for June. Sadler said a booking agent has started discussing dates with tour promoters. Inside the building, wooden studs wait for sheetrock. The bathrooms need piping and fixtures, and the stage hasn’t been constructed. But the space is taking shape, and it already feels like a club—dark and faintly musty. 

The building is charming, but perhaps its biggest asset is the canal just outside.  Sadler said he and his investors, which include area cardiologist Charles Joyner, finally pulled the trigger after six years of deliberation. 

“This is the absolute best location we could find anywhere,” Sadler said.  “Just look at all the construction going on down here.  Look at Tobacco Row.  Look at Vistas on the James.”

Less than a mile away, demolition crews just finished tearing out the rotted insides of The National Theater. The interior smells like an attic and looks like, well, a 1923 theater. The stage is already in place, and the former orchestra pit will soon get railed off. The front of the theater will get resurfaced creating a gently sloping, standing-room only section.  The four side balconies are currently for sale to corporate sponsors.  The backstage area will get a hot tub, sauna, and whatever else stokes the ego of touring musicians. The National might be open by the end of the year, barring construction setbacks.

There wasn’t a better location in all of Richmond, Wells said. “You’ve got the federal court going up across the street, the Miller & Rhoads project and more than a billion in construction downtown,” he said. “There’s a synergy there, and farther west on Broad
Street, too.”

Both venues show promise—the history, the chic interiors, the “downtowny-ness.” But two venues mean two options for the agents whose job is to get the most money for their musician clients. Payne, who booked acts for five years at Flood Zone, said unless each restricts itself to a mutually exclusive genre, they will compete for talent. “I can’t think that either is too thrilled the other is here. If they duke it out for talent to the highest bidder, somebody is not going to be around for very long.”

Both venues will book in tandem with highly regarded industry leaders, who are also affiliated with both projects; Toad’s with its namesake in New Haven, CT, and The National, with its partner, the NorVa in Norfolk. Wilco plays both. So does Shaggy. The spring schedule at Toad’s New Haven and the NorVa both have Stephen Marley, VNV Nation, Norma Jean, Maylene and The Sons of Disaster scheduled for the Spring. 

The National is hoping that the cushy backstage area will help secure talent in the event of a bidding war. “The NorVa with a great reputation is the best thing to compare us to. We are going to have the ability to put on acts playing larger venues in a smaller intimate place,” Wells said. “The best experience for artists, the best promotion. No cutting corners.”

The National will offer only live music. Toad’s will have dance club nights several times a week. And that will give it a different identity. “They throw quality shows, we throw great parties,” Sadler said. But with two options, consumers will have a choice. Catch a show on Wednesday at The National, or sit it out and wait for another one at Toad’s? 
One Charlottesville promoter (who preferred to go unnamed) said venues rarely make much money on the door. Instead, they lure in patrons who then spend money on food and more lucratively, booze.

Both venues point to a boom in construction downtown and say their music halls will draw people from the city and hinterlands. But the degree of downtown’s revival is debatable. Many condos are still vacant, and shops rarely last more than a year in Shockoe Bottom. Many new buildings—the Federal Courthouse, the new HQ for MeadWestvaco when it opens—are busy until the end of the work day. 

“Richmonders in general are conservative,” said Mason Wyatt, one of the original partners in the Flood Zone. “I’ve found that they love to go to a 6pm show at outdoor venues like Friday Cheers or Innsbrook After Hours (which Wells produces), pay $5 to stand around in a massive field and drink draft beer, but selling evening tickets for three or four times that much discourages people.”

Sadler said the market for live music exists, and that with proper marketing, Richmonders and music fans from as far away as Williamsburg and Fredericksburg will flock downtown to catch a show, either at Toad’s or The National. Then they might do it again. “They’ll come here and enjoy live music, or go there and do the same. The problem isn’t that there isn’t enough business to support live venues, it’s making sure those people have a good experience and come back.”

Wells said he’s also not concerned about drawing crowds. “You’ve got 200 shows playing Norfolk and skipping through Richmond. There’s over a million people in this market and the largest university in the state. The market is there.”

“It’s not that Richmond hasn’t supported a venue this size—it’s that a venue this size hasn’t been done right.” Wells said. 

If his prognostication proves right, maybe it’s not a game of musical chairs. Maybe this time the music just keeps playing.